Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
31¢
Current price looks roughly efficient. Any bullish case for Yes is small, while tournament outcome risk remains high and the market has already moved up over the week.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Tight 1-cent spread · Balanced depth near top of book · Price already up 10 pts in 1w
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
58%
Alcaraz is priced at 0.31 and the orderbook is tight with heavy two-sided liquidity; recent drift to 0.305-0.31 suggests only a modest positive edge, not a strong misprice.