Yes ↓ -2% 9/9/2026, 18:04:31
Recent momentum appears stronger than the underlying evidence for a 2026 title win, implying the primary outcome may be modestly overpriced.
Unified market view
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Buy No
Model leans lowerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 57%
Price at model run 10.6¢ Model run: 9/9/2026, 18:04:31
Live best ask 10¢ Live update: 9/9/2026, 19:35:53
Model OpenAI
The Yes price has surged from 1.65% to roughly 10% in a week, while the long-dated outcome remains highly uncertain and Tiafoe faces a deep, competitive field. Estimated probability is about 7.5%, below the 10.2% ask; reassess after major tournament results, injury news, or a sustained price reset.
Watch triggers
- Reassess after Grand Slam results
- Reassess on injury or ranking news
- Reassess if price falls below 7%
Why confirmation is still needed
The Yes price has surged from 1.65% to roughly 10% in a week, while the long-dated outcome remains highly uncertain and Tiafoe faces a deep, competitive field. Estimated probability is about 7.5%, below the 10.2% ask; reassess after major tournament results, injury news, or a sustained price reset.
Revisit when
Reassess after Grand Slam results · Reassess on injury or ranking news · Reassess if price falls below 7%
Execution guard
Price 10¢ · spread 0.3 pts · liquidity $73,959. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/9/2026, 19:35:53
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
10¢Volume (24h) ?
$165,625Liquidity ?
$73,959Open interest ?
$1,157,135Spread ?
0.3¢Depth imbalance ?
-3.0%Momentum ?
7.1%Volatility ?
1.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
9.7¢ 111.11
8.1¢ 1,199
7.9¢ 200
7.8¢ 1,700
7.2¢ 200
Asks
10¢ 406.03
10.1¢ 792.83
10.2¢ 30
10.3¢ 392.03
10.4¢ 2,000
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/9/2026, 19:13:22 9.8¢
9/9/2026, 19:15:13 9.8¢
9/9/2026, 19:17:13 9.8¢
9/9/2026, 19:19:14 9.8¢
9/9/2026, 19:21:13 9.8¢
9/9/2026, 19:23:13 9.8¢
9/9/2026, 19:25:13 9.8¢
9/9/2026, 19:27:10 9.85¢
9/9/2026, 19:29:15 9.85¢
9/9/2026, 19:31:10 9.85¢
9/9/2026, 19:33:13 9.85¢
9/9/2026, 19:34:09 9.85¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.