Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
10.6¢
The Yes price has surged from 1.65% to roughly 10% in a week, while the long-dated outcome remains highly uncertain and Tiafoe faces a deep, competitive field. Estimated probability is about 7.5%, below the 10.2% ask; reassess after major tournament results, injury news, or a sustained price reset.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Reassess after Grand Slam results · Reassess on injury or ranking news · Reassess if price falls below 7%
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
57%
The Yes price has surged from 1.65% to roughly 10% in a week, while the long-dated outcome remains highly uncertain and Tiafoe faces a deep, competitive field. Estimated probability is about 7.5%, below the 10.2% ask; reassess after major tournament results, injury news, or a sustained price reset.