Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:03:32
Current price is near the upper end of the recent range with a tight spread, but I do not see enough mispricing to justify a clear buy or sell.
Unified market view
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 61%
Price at model run 82.1¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:03:32
Live best ask 82.6¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:46:00
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current price is near the upper end of the recent range with a tight spread, but I do not see enough mispricing to justify a clear buy or sell.
Watch triggers
- Yes price near 0.82-0.83
- Recent upward drift is modest
- Spread is tight, but edge is small
Why not now
Current price is near the upper end of the recent range with a tight spread, but I do not see enough mispricing to justify a clear buy or sell.
Revisit when
Yes price near 0.82-0.83 · Recent upward drift is modest · Spread is tight, but edge is small
Execution guard
Price 82.6¢ · spread 0.4 pts · liquidity $69,564. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:46:00
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
82.6¢Volume (24h) ?
$8,463Liquidity ?
$69,564Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.4¢Depth imbalance ?
11.4%Momentum ?
-0.1%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
82.2¢ 220.25
82.1¢ 444.31
82¢ 637.77
81.9¢ 250
81.8¢ 1,050
Asks
82.6¢ 5.07
82.7¢ 107.5
82.8¢ 262.67
82.9¢ 744.21
83¢ 949.97
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:12 82.55¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:09 82.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:22 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:12 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:08 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:11 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:08 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:10 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:12 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:10 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:08 82.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 82.4¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:03:19
The market looks fairly priced after a recent run-up; there is no strong positive edge to buy at current levels.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:03:26
No clear mispricing: the incumbent remains favored, but the market price is already high and recent trend/liquidity do not justify a fresh buy at current levels.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:03:13
Current price is near a plausible fair range and liquidity is decent, but the spread plus lack of a clear catalyst makes the edge too small to trade aggressively.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 12:02:33
No clear mispricing: Yes is expensive but not decisively overvalued given long-dated political uncertainty and deep liquidity.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.