Unified market view

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Model leans lower

Data gap

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 42%

Price at model run 56.4¢ Model run: 9/21/2026, 00:04:22

Live best ask 60.1¢ Live update: 9/21/2026, 01:47:42

Model OpenAI

Yes is priced around 57.3% at the midpoint after a sharp one-day rally from roughly 34%. The move may reflect new information, but the magnitude and elevated volatility suggest modest overpricing; evidence is insufficient for a strong divergence.

Watch triggers

Reassess above 0.62
Reassess below 0.52
Monitor credible political developments

Why confirmation is still needed

Revisit when

Reassess above 0.62 · Reassess below 0.52 · Monitor credible political developments

Execution guard

Price 60.1¢ · spread 2.1 pts · liquidity $81,601. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/21/2026, 01:47:42

Model stance

Watch

Best ask ?

60.1¢

Volume (24h) ?

$115,755

Liquidity ?

$81,601

Open interest ?

$710,861

Spread ?

2.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-63.7%

Momentum ?

9.7%

Volatility ?

0.3%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

58¢ 8.62

57.9¢ 10

57.7¢ 30

57.4¢ 62

57.3¢ 491.32

Asks

60.1¢ 76.49

60.4¢ 10

60.7¢ 50

60.8¢ 1,574.98

60.9¢ 999.98

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/21/2026, 01:23:12 59¢

9/21/2026, 01:25:10 59¢

9/21/2026, 01:27:13 59¢

9/21/2026, 01:29:25 59¢

9/21/2026, 01:31:12 59¢

9/21/2026, 01:33:12 58.95¢

9/21/2026, 01:35:13 59.05¢

9/21/2026, 01:37:13 59.05¢

9/21/2026, 01:39:10 59.05¢

9/21/2026, 01:41:12 59.05¢

9/21/2026, 01:43:09 59.05¢

9/21/2026, 01:44:09 59.05¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 9/21/2026, 00:04:22

The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value after an unusually rapid repricing.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.