Model stance Watch Horizon
Short-term Current price
56.4¢
Yes is priced around 57.3% at the midpoint after a sharp one-day rally from roughly 34%. The move may reflect new information, but the magnitude and elevated volatility suggest modest overpricing; evidence is insufficient for a strong divergence.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Reassess above 0.62 · Reassess below 0.52 · Monitor credible political developments
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
42%
Yes is priced around 57.3% at the midpoint after a sharp one-day rally from roughly 34%. The move may reflect new information, but the magnitude and elevated volatility suggest modest overpricing; evidence is insufficient for a strong divergence.