Yes ↑ +1% 9/17/2026, 18:00:50
The model assigns a modestly higher probability to passage than the market, so Yes appears slightly underpriced.
Unified market view
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Data gapExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 42%
Price at model run 8.4¢ Model run: 9/17/2026, 18:00:50
Live best ask 8.3¢ Live update: 9/17/2026, 19:49:52
Model OpenAI
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
Watch triggers
- Congressional committee or floor action
- Senate support becomes clearer
- Price sustains above 0.10
Why confirmation is still needed
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
Revisit when
Congressional committee or floor action · Senate support becomes clearer · Price sustains above 0.10
Execution guard
Price 8.3¢ · spread 0.3 pts · liquidity $624,033. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/17/2026, 19:49:52
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
8.3¢Volume (24h) ?
$307,548Liquidity ?
$624,033Open interest ?
$5,823,218Spread ?
0.4¢Depth imbalance ?
-7.5%Momentum ?
5.8%Volatility ?
0.9%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
8¢ 162.09
7.9¢ 2,366.91
7.8¢ 49,400
7.7¢ 69,993.54
7.6¢ 54,837
Asks
8.4¢ 2,402.29
8.5¢ 2,309.11
8.6¢ 10,010.98
8.7¢ 189,806.72
8.8¢ 866
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/17/2026, 19:28:21 7.95¢
9/17/2026, 19:30:19 7.95¢
9/17/2026, 19:32:15 7.95¢
9/17/2026, 19:34:15 7.95¢
9/17/2026, 19:36:34 7.95¢
9/17/2026, 19:38:15 7.95¢
9/17/2026, 19:40:29 8¢
9/17/2026, 19:42:16 8¢
9/17/2026, 19:44:15 8¢
9/17/2026, 19:46:16 8¢
9/17/2026, 19:48:15 8.15¢
9/17/2026, 19:49:15 8.2¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +1% 9/17/2026, 12:00:56
The model sees a small positive divergence for Yes, but the estimate is highly uncertain because no legislative catalyst or progress data is provided.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 06:00:45
No clear mispricing is detected: short-term recovery conflicts with the broader weekly downtrend, while legislative timing and outcome uncertainty remain substantial.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 00:00:41
No clear divergence from fair value is supported by the supplied data. Price momentum is mixed across horizons, and orderbook imbalance may reflect positioning rather than new information.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/16/2026, 18:00:25
The market appears modestly overvalued for Yes, though the edge is small and highly sensitive to new legislative information.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/17/2026, 19:00:31
$8,584 92.3¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 18:52:34
$17,602 92.2¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 18:51:52
$9,128 92.2¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 18:50:43
$9,160 92.1¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 16:50:00
$5,604 92¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 16:49:13
$9,190 91.9¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 15:30:16
$5,623 91.21¢
Sell · No 9/17/2026, 14:16:16
$9,206 92.06¢