Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 12:02:44
Small negative edge versus the current Yes price, with recent momentum still leaning lower and no strong buy imbalance.
Unified market view
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 65%
Price at model run 30¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:44
Live best ask 27¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:35
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Small negative edge versus the current Yes price, with recent momentum still leaning lower and no strong buy imbalance.
Watch triggers
- 1w price down 8.5c
- 1h momentum negative
- Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Why not now
Small negative edge versus the current Yes price, with recent momentum still leaning lower and no strong buy imbalance.
Revisit when
1w price down 8.5c · 1h momentum negative · Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Execution guard
Price 27¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $66,718. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:35
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
27¢Volume (24h) ?
$57,747Liquidity ?
$66,718Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-2.0%Momentum ?
-10.2%Volatility ?
1.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
26¢ 5,298.59
25¢ 11,645.48
24¢ 6,869.34
23¢ 4,631.31
22¢ 1,476.64
Asks
27¢ 136.12
28¢ 5,630.52
29¢ 6,804.1
30¢ 14,334.13
31¢ 4,219.46
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:21:09 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:11 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:12 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:11 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:11 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:11 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:10 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:11 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:11 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:11 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:09 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:10 26.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:02:21
No clear edge after accounting for the recent selloff in Yes and modest orderbook balance. Spread is tight, but the market still reflects substantial uncertainty and the current price is near the m...
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:38
Slightly bearish versus current Yes price; momentum and book favor No, while liquidity is ample enough to express the view.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:57
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to observed momentum and the lack of a clear catalyst for passage/signing within 2026.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 12:02:13
Small bearish edge on Yes at current price, with momentum still drifting lower and no catalyst evidence of imminent passage/signing.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 8/3/2026, 13:03:14
$13,178 73.31¢