8/3/2026, 18:02:59 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
26¢
Market is efficiently range-bound around a falling Yes price; edge is modest and liquidity is decent, so there is no strong buy or sell at current levels.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price down 11% over 7d · Orderbook favors No side · Spread is tight but edge is small
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
68%
Yes is priced around 0.26 but recent 1d/1w trend is decisively down, with strong sell-side pressure and 24h/7d declines. Current orderbook favors No and there is no clear catalyst indicating passage/signed law probability above market.
8/3/2026, 12:02:44 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
Small negative edge versus the current Yes price, with recent momentum still leaning lower and no strong buy imbalance.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down 8.5c · 1h momentum negative · Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
65%
Yes trades around 0.30, but the 1w trend has softened from 0.375 to 0.29 and recent 1h move is down. Depth is only mildly supportive for Yes, so fair value looks a bit below market.
8/3/2026, 06:02:21 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
No clear edge after accounting for the recent selloff in Yes and modest orderbook balance. Spread is tight, but the market still reflects substantial uncertainty and the current price is near the m...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes down 8.5c in 1w · No price remains elevated · Tight 2c spread
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
64%
Price at 0.30 looks slightly rich versus a still-uncertain legislative path. Recent 1d/1w drift is down on Yes, while No has been supported near 0.70, suggesting the market is pricing meaningful passage risk without a clear fresh catalyst.
8/3/2026, 00:02:38 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
Slightly bearish versus current Yes price; momentum and book favor No, while liquidity is ample enough to express the view.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes has fallen 8.5 pts in a week · Orderbook favors No side · No near-term catalyst visible
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
66%
Price at 0.30 implies about 30% for passage/signing. Recent 1d and 1w trend is down, and orderbook slightly favors No; no clear catalyst for a reversal.
8/2/2026, 18:01:57 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
31¢
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to observed momentum and the lack of a clear catalyst for passage/signing within 2026.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes last trade near 0.31 · 1w trend down 7.5c · No bill-signing catalyst yet
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
60%
Price at 0.31 looks a bit rich versus the still-high legislative uncertainty; recent week downtrend and only modest near-term bounce suggest limited upside.
