9/17/2026, 18:00:50 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
8.4¢
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Congressional committee or floor action · Senate support becomes clearer · Price sustains above 0.10
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
42%
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
9/17/2026, 12:00:56 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
7.4¢
The Yes price near 7.5% may modestly understate the chance of enactment by the 2026 deadline, given the recent one-day rebound. However, the sharp weekly decline, heavy sell-side depth, and substantial legislative uncertainty limit conviction.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Congressional committee or floor action · Credible bipartisan support updates · Yes price moves materially above 10%
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
28%
The Yes price near 7.5% may modestly understate the chance of enactment by the 2026 deadline, given the recent one-day rebound. However, the sharp weekly decline, heavy sell-side depth, and substantial legislative uncertainty limit conviction.
9/17/2026, 06:00:45 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
7.9¢
The market implies roughly an 8% probability, and available price action does not establish a reliable divergence. Recent rebound momentum is offset by a steep weekly decline and limited event-specific evidence, so the estimated probability remains near market value.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Congressional committee advancement · Floor scheduling or passage · Bipartisan agreement
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
34%
The market implies roughly an 8% probability, and available price action does not establish a reliable divergence. Recent rebound momentum is offset by a steep weekly decline and limited event-specific evidence, so the estimated probability remains near market value.
9/17/2026, 00:00:41 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
6.5¢
The market prices passage and enactment at approximately 6.5%. Recent daily recovery and strong bid depth contrast with a substantial weekly decline, while the orderbook and short-term history provide no reliable fundamental evidence of mispricing. Reassess after legislative progress or credible congressional signals.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Committee or floor action · Credible bipartisan support · Material legislative opposition
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
63%
The market prices passage and enactment at approximately 6.5%. Recent daily recovery and strong bid depth contrast with a substantial weekly decline, while the orderbook and short-term history provide no reliable fundamental evidence of mispricing. Reassess after legislative progress or credible congressional signals.
9/16/2026, 18:00:25 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
6.4¢
The Yes price near 6.6% appears slightly above a cautious estimated probability of about 6.0%. The sharp weekly decline supports limited near-term optimism, while substantial time remains for legislative developments; new bill progress or credible bipartisan support would warrant revisiting the estimate.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Committee advancement or formal floor scheduling · Bipartisan negotiations or public support · Major changes in congressional leadership
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
62%
The Yes price near 6.6% appears slightly above a cautious estimated probability of about 6.0%. The sharp weekly decline supports limited near-term optimism, while substantial time remains for legislative developments; new bill progress or credible bipartisan support would warrant revisiting the estimate.
