Yes ↓ -5% 8/3/2026, 18:02:59
Market is efficiently range-bound around a falling Yes price; edge is modest and liquidity is decent, so there is no strong buy or sell at current levels.
Unified market view
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -5%
Confidence 68%
Price at model run 26¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:02:59
Live best ask 28¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:48:26
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Market is efficiently range-bound around a falling Yes price; edge is modest and liquidity is decent, so there is no strong buy or sell at current levels.
Watch triggers
- Yes price down 11% over 7d
- Orderbook favors No side
- Spread is tight but edge is small
Why not now
Market is efficiently range-bound around a falling Yes price; edge is modest and liquidity is decent, so there is no strong buy or sell at current levels.
Revisit when
Yes price down 11% over 7d · Orderbook favors No side · Spread is tight but edge is small
Execution guard
Price 28¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $68,133. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:48:26
Signal
SellBest ask ?
28¢Volume (24h) ?
$57,495Liquidity ?
$68,133Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
-14.5%Momentum ?
-8.5%Volatility ?
1.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
26¢ 6,286.47
25¢ 13,744.48
24¢ 4,049.16
23¢ 4,636.31
22¢ 1,576.64
Asks
28¢ 3,447.56
29¢ 9,643.1
30¢ 16,498.27
31¢ 4,379.38
32¢ 6,626.38
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:24:11 27.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:26:08 27.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:10 26.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:12 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:11 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:08 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:12 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:22 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:10 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:11 27¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:08 27¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 12:02:44
Small negative edge versus the current Yes price, with recent momentum still leaning lower and no strong buy imbalance.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:02:21
No clear edge after accounting for the recent selloff in Yes and modest orderbook balance. Spread is tight, but the market still reflects substantial uncertainty and the current price is near the m...
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:38
Slightly bearish versus current Yes price; momentum and book favor No, while liquidity is ample enough to express the view.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:57
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to observed momentum and the lack of a clear catalyst for passage/signing within 2026.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 8/3/2026, 13:03:14
$13,178 73.31¢