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Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Buy No

Model leans lower
Execution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -6%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 81¢ Model run: 9/11/2026, 18:02:20
Live best ask 82¢ Live update: 9/11/2026, 18:22:46
Model OpenAI

Yes is priced near 81%, but the recent 18-point daily and 32-point weekly surge appears momentum-driven and leaves limited margin for uncertainty around future inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Estimated probability is about 75%; reassess if new macro data materially changes the expected policy path.

Watch triggers
  • Sustained pricing above 85%
  • A renewed inflation acceleration
  • Weakening labor-market data
Why confirmation is still needed

Yes is priced near 81%, but the recent 18-point daily and 32-point weekly surge appears momentum-driven and leaves limited margin for uncertainty around future inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Estimated probability is about 75%; reassess if new macro data materially changes the expected policy path.

Revisit when

Sustained pricing above 85% · A renewed inflation acceleration · Weakening labor-market data

Execution guard

Price 82¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $94,136. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/11/2026, 18:22:46

Model stance

Leans higher

Best ask ?

82¢

Volume (24h) ?

$152,398

Liquidity ?

$94,136

Open interest ?

$550,153

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

54.8%

Momentum ?

41.7%

Volatility ?

2.2%

Trend slope ?

0

Reasons

  • Momentum turning up
  • Bid depth outweighs asks
  • Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

  • Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
  • Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
  • Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

81¢ 6,810.98
80¢ 2,400
79¢ 59,354.32
78¢ 8,814.51
77¢ 5,000

Asks

82¢ 276.88
83¢ 17,906
84¢ 3,568.5
85¢ 1,255
86¢ 1,050

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/11/2026, 17:57:11 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 17:59:16 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:01:14 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:03:11 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:05:16 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:07:15 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:09:15 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:11:15 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:13:11 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:15:15 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:17:11 81.5¢
9/11/2026, 18:19:15 81.5¢

Prediction history

Full history
Yes ↓ -6% 9/11/2026, 18:02:20

The primary outcome appears above fair value after a rapid repricing, with substantial sell-side depth suggesting resistance.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.