Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
81¢
Yes is priced near 81%, but the recent 18-point daily and 32-point weekly surge appears momentum-driven and leaves limited margin for uncertainty around future inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Estimated probability is about 75%; reassess if new macro data materially changes the expected policy path.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained pricing above 85% · A renewed inflation acceleration · Weakening labor-market data
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
62%
Yes is priced near 81%, but the recent 18-point daily and 32-point weekly surge appears momentum-driven and leaves limited margin for uncertainty around future inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Estimated probability is about 75%; reassess if new macro data materially changes the expected policy path.