Unified market view

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Buy Yes

Model leans higher

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↑ +2%

Confidence 56%

Price at model run 12.3¢ Model run: 9/11/2026, 12:02:01

Live best ask 8.6¢ Live update: 9/11/2026, 13:20:29

Model OpenAI

The Yes price is 12.3%, while strong bid-side depth and a substantial multi-day rebound suggest modestly higher implied probability, around 14%. The recent one-hour pullback and long time to expiry limit conviction.

Watch triggers

Price sustains above 14%
New qualifying PortWatch data
Price falls below 10%

Why confirmation is still needed

Revisit when

Price sustains above 14% · New qualifying PortWatch data · Price falls below 10%

Execution guard

Price 8.6¢ · spread 0.3 pts · liquidity $94,215. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/11/2026, 13:20:29

Model stance

Watch

Best ask ?

8.6¢

Volume (24h) ?

$128,469

Liquidity ?

$94,215

Open interest ?

$1,237,643

Spread ?

0.2¢

Depth imbalance ?

92.5%

Momentum ?

-13.0%

Volatility ?

2.4%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

8.3¢ 100

7.9¢ 24.99

7.8¢ 241

7.7¢ 30,010

7.6¢ 2,020

Asks

8.5¢ 400

8.8¢ 105.46

8.9¢ 29.64

10.6¢ 195

10.7¢ 524.1

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/11/2026, 12:56:16 11.2¢

9/11/2026, 12:58:16 10.9¢

9/11/2026, 13:00:33 10.9¢

9/11/2026, 13:02:15 10.75¢

9/11/2026, 13:04:16 10.5¢

9/11/2026, 13:06:16 10.45¢

9/11/2026, 13:08:17 9.7¢

9/11/2026, 13:10:17 9.55¢

9/11/2026, 13:12:17 8.9¢

9/11/2026, 13:14:16 8.6¢

9/11/2026, 13:16:17 8.45¢

9/11/2026, 13:17:27 8.4¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +2% 9/11/2026, 12:02:01

Yes appears modestly below model-implied fair value, supported by persistent upward momentum and pronounced bid depth. Reassess if price falls below 10% or sustained short-term weakness develops.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.