Yes ↓ -0% 9/18/2026, 12:02:32
The model sees Yes as marginally above fair value, but the edge is small and event risk is asymmetric. Reassess if PortWatch arrivals deteriorate or new shipping disruptions emerge.
Unified market view
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -0%
Confidence 72%
Price at model run 3.3¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:02:32
Live best ask 1.9¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:59:25
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 3.35%, while the sustained weekly decline, stable near-term pricing, and strong No-side liquidity suggest a slightly lower fair probability. Uncertainty remains because a sudden regional disruption could create a qualifying low-transit observation.
Watch triggers
- PortWatch 7-day arrivals reach 10 or below
- Verified shipping disruption in the strait
- Yes price falls below 2.5%
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced near 3.35%, while the sustained weekly decline, stable near-term pricing, and strong No-side liquidity suggest a slightly lower fair probability. Uncertainty remains because a sudden regional disruption could create a qualifying low-transit observation.
Revisit when
PortWatch 7-day arrivals reach 10 or below · Verified shipping disruption in the strait · Yes price falls below 2.5%
Execution guard
Price 1.9¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $206,507. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:59:25
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
1.9¢Volume (24h) ?
$136,110Liquidity ?
$206,507Open interest ?
$1,364,107Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
55.7%Momentum ?
-44.8%Volatility ?
2.3%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
1.8¢ 64,332.73
1.7¢ 2,255.99
1.6¢ 325
1.5¢ 50,576
1.3¢ 2,050
Asks
1.9¢ 21,474.24
2¢ 230
2.1¢ 450
2.4¢ 300
2.5¢ 11,600
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:37:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:39:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:41:16 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:43:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:45:16 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:47:16 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:49:24 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:51:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:53:16 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:55:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:57:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:58:16 1.85¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 9/18/2026, 06:02:01
The low Yes price is consistent with the recent downward trend, but the long time to expiry and binary resolution rule leave substantial event uncertainty.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/18/2026, 00:01:24
The model places the closure probability modestly below the market price, with bearish momentum and stronger No-side depth.
Yes ↓ -0% 9/17/2026, 18:01:28
Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value, but the edge is small and uncertain because the resolution depends on future shipping data and possible disruption events.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/17/2026, 12:01:58
Yes appears slightly overvalued relative to the base-rate and recent downward repricing, though sparse event data and a long horizon leave meaningful uncertainty.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/18/2026, 13:40:53
$6,000 90.4¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 01:40:24
$16,000 80.92¢