Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 12:01:34
Price looks roughly efficient around 57c; modest bearish tilt on Yes, but not enough edge to justify a clear trade.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 63%
Price at model run 57¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:34
Live best ask 57¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:42
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price looks roughly efficient around 57c; modest bearish tilt on Yes, but not enough edge to justify a clear trade.
Watch triggers
- Flat recent price action
- Best ask near current price
- No confirmed data breakout
Why not now
Price looks roughly efficient around 57c; modest bearish tilt on Yes, but not enough edge to justify a clear trade.
Revisit when
Flat recent price action · Best ask near current price · No confirmed data breakout
Execution guard
Price 57¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $273,843. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:42
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
57¢Volume (24h) ?
$125,331Liquidity ?
$273,843Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
8.7%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
56¢ 16,327.89
55¢ 27,599.36
54¢ 35,238.58
53¢ 7,887.47
52¢ 3,526.07
Asks
57¢ 8,542.55
58¢ 28,472.98
59¢ 25,684.6
60¢ 9,689.8
61¢ 3,615.48
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:10 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:08 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:21 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:10 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:10 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 56.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 56.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:01:26
Current pricing looks close to fair with slight downside bias, but not enough edge to justify a trade given tight spread and balanced liquidity.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:15
Fairly efficient market with tight spread and no strong informational edge; current price is near my estimate, so waiting is preferable.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:00:54
Price has risen sharply, but the evidence only shows market repricing, not a confirmed data shift. At 0.58, edge looks minimal to slightly negative on Yes.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 12:01:03
Price is slightly rich versus the evidence; upside looks capped near the current ask unless fresh transit data improves materially.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 15:06:51
$5,700 57¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 03:54:17
$7,310 43¢