Yes ↑ +1% 9/17/2026, 18:03:02
Yes appears modestly undervalued, supported by bid-heavy depth and the long resolution window.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 55%
Price at model run 17¢ Model run: 9/17/2026, 18:03:02
Live best ask 18¢ Live update: 9/17/2026, 19:50:37
Model OpenAI
The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.
Watch triggers
- New Portwatch data shows sustained traffic recovery
- Price rises materially above estimated fair value
- Traffic disruptions persist or worsen
Why confirmation is still needed
The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.
Revisit when
New Portwatch data shows sustained traffic recovery · Price rises materially above estimated fair value · Traffic disruptions persist or worsen
Execution guard
Price 18¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $493,679. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/17/2026, 19:50:37
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
18¢Volume (24h) ?
$29,720Liquidity ?
$493,679Open interest ?
$1,666,142Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
63.8%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
17¢ 32,531.27
16¢ 67,884.84
15¢ 136,777.76
14¢ 389,726.3
13¢ 11,986.52
Asks
18¢ 36,251.79
19¢ 43,422.18
20¢ 44,972.47
21¢ 12,210.47
22¢ 4,459.76
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/17/2026, 19:28:16 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:30:15 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:32:13 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:34:14 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:36:28 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:38:13 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:40:26 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:42:14 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:44:14 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:46:14 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:48:13 17.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:49:14 17.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +3% 9/17/2026, 12:03:32
Yes appears modestly below estimated fair value, but the edge is limited because resolution depends on a specific IMF Portwatch threshold and future regional conditions.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 06:03:30
No clear divergence from the market-implied probability is detected. Reassess if IMF Portwatch reports sustained transit recovery, a qualifying 7-day average, or material repricing with new data.
Yes ↑ +2% 9/17/2026, 00:04:27
Yes appears slightly underpriced, but the edge is limited and highly sensitive to future disruptions and the definition of a qualifying seven-day average.
Yes ↑ +1% 9/16/2026, 18:03:31
No clear divergence is detected: the estimated probability is only slightly above the market price, while orderbook depth and recent trends provide mixed evidence.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.