9/17/2026, 18:03:02 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
17¢
The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers New Portwatch data shows sustained traffic recovery · Price rises materially above estimated fair value · Traffic disruptions persist or worsen
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
55%
The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.
9/17/2026, 12:03:32 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
17¢
The Yes price is 0.17, while the long horizon through 2026 leaves meaningful time for traffic to recover above the threshold at least once. Recent weekly momentum and strong bid-side depth support a modest positive edge, though geopolitical disruption and the absence of current trend data keep uncertainty high.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers IMF Portwatch readings approach 60 · Sustained Yes price above 0.25 · New prolonged regional disruption
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+3% Confidence
55%
The Yes price is 0.17, while the long horizon through 2026 leaves meaningful time for traffic to recover above the threshold at least once. Recent weekly momentum and strong bid-side depth support a modest positive edge, though geopolitical disruption and the absence of current trend data keep uncertainty high.
9/17/2026, 06:03:30 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
18¢
The Yes price is around 0.18, with flat short- and medium-term history and no independent evidence indicating a meaningful probability difference. Strong bid depth provides support, but the long horizon and unresolved traffic data leave substantial uncertainty.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers A 7-day average reaches or approaches 60 · IMF Portwatch reports sustained traffic recovery · Material repricing follows new traffic data
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
62%
The Yes price is around 0.18, with flat short- and medium-term history and no independent evidence indicating a meaningful probability difference. Strong bid depth provides support, but the long horizon and unresolved traffic data leave substantial uncertainty.
9/17/2026, 00:04:27 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
17¢
The Yes price of 0.17 appears modestly below a model estimate near 0.19, given the long resolution window and multiple opportunities for traffic to briefly reach the 60-call threshold. Uncertainty remains high because no current transit data or geopolitical trajectory is provided.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained 7-day average approaches 60 · New blockade or military escalation · IMF Portwatch methodology or data revision
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
58%
The Yes price of 0.17 appears modestly below a model estimate near 0.19, given the long resolution window and multiple opportunities for traffic to briefly reach the 60-call threshold. Uncertainty remains high because no current transit data or geopolitical trajectory is provided.
9/16/2026, 18:03:31 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
17¢
The long horizon leaves meaningful time for Hormuz traffic to recover, but the market price already reflects a low-probability event and no underlying traffic data is provided. Stable short-term pricing and recent weekly weakness limit confidence in a material edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Verified 7-day average approaches 60 · New Portwatch data shows sustained recovery · Price moves materially away from 0.17
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
35%
The long horizon leaves meaningful time for Hormuz traffic to recover, but the market price already reflects a low-probability event and no underlying traffic data is provided. Stable short-term pricing and recent weekly weakness limit confidence in a material edge.
