Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 18:01:48
The Yes price looks a bit rich versus recent history, with no clear catalyst for an immediate move above 0.57.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 56%
Price at model run 57¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:01:48
Live best ask 58¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:49:31
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes price looks a bit rich versus recent history, with no clear catalyst for an immediate move above 0.57.
Watch triggers
- Yes at 0.57
- 1h/6h trend flat
- No strong bullish imbalance
Why not now
The Yes price looks a bit rich versus recent history, with no clear catalyst for an immediate move above 0.57.
Revisit when
Yes at 0.57 · 1h/6h trend flat · No strong bullish imbalance
Execution guard
Price 58¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $271,128. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:49:31
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
58¢Volume (24h) ?
$118,718Liquidity ?
$271,128Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-1.7%Momentum ?
1.8%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
57¢ 1,031.94
56¢ 26,493.93
55¢ 37,232.64
54¢ 14,916.88
53¢ 2,680.25
Asks
58¢ 24,020.62
59¢ 37,351.86
60¢ 10,006.22
61¢ 3,833
62¢ 9,969.51
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:24:10 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:26:07 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:11 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:09 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:07 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 57.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:07 57.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 12:01:34
Price looks roughly efficient around 57c; modest bearish tilt on Yes, but not enough edge to justify a clear trade.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:01:26
Current pricing looks close to fair with slight downside bias, but not enough edge to justify a trade given tight spread and balanced liquidity.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:15
Fairly efficient market with tight spread and no strong informational edge; current price is near my estimate, so waiting is preferable.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:00:54
Price has risen sharply, but the evidence only shows market repricing, not a confirmed data shift. At 0.58, edge looks minimal to slightly negative on Yes.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 15:06:51
$5,700 57¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 03:54:17
$7,310 43¢