Unified market view

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Buy Yes

Model leans higher

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↑ +4%

Confidence 55%

Price at model run 33¢ Model run: 9/5/2026, 00:05:07

Live best ask 34¢ Live update: 9/5/2026, 01:32:38

Model OpenAI

The market implies roughly 34% for a qualifying ceasefire, while the long remaining horizon and continued diplomatic incentives support a modestly higher estimate near 38%. Confidence is limited by the recent sharp, volatile repricing and the strict requirement for a mutually announced general pause.

Watch triggers

Official Russia-Ukraine negotiation announcements
Credible reports of a general ceasefire framework
Sustained price above 0.45

Why confirmation is still needed

Revisit when

Official Russia-Ukraine negotiation announcements · Credible reports of a general ceasefire framework · Sustained price above 0.45

Execution guard

Price 34¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $105,077. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/5/2026, 01:32:38

Model stance

Watch

Best ask ?

34¢

Volume (24h) ?

$193,228

Liquidity ?

$105,077

Open interest ?

$612,636

Spread ?

2¢

Depth imbalance ?

63.3%

Momentum ?

46.7%

Volatility ?

4.9%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢
Volatility too high

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

32¢ 1,006

31¢ 5,742.57

30¢ 3,524.65

29¢ 6,405.24

28¢ 2,009.98

Asks

34¢ 54.6

35¢ 126.99

36¢ 1,234.8

37¢ 2,645

38¢ 144

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/5/2026, 01:10:15 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:12:25 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:14:15 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:16:14 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:18:14 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:20:24 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:22:10 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:24:14 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:26:17 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:28:14 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:30:12 33¢

9/5/2026, 01:31:14 33¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +4% 9/5/2026, 00:05:07

Yes appears modestly below estimated fair value, but the recent rally and elevated volatility reduce conviction.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 9/4/2026, 21:23:55

$6,000 55¢

Sell · Yes 9/4/2026, 21:00:43

$6,679 47.42¢