Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
33¢
The market implies roughly 34% for a qualifying ceasefire, while the long remaining horizon and continued diplomatic incentives support a modestly higher estimate near 38%. Confidence is limited by the recent sharp, volatile repricing and the strict requirement for a mutually announced general pause.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official Russia-Ukraine negotiation announcements · Credible reports of a general ceasefire framework · Sustained price above 0.45
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+4% Confidence
55%
The market implies roughly 34% for a qualifying ceasefire, while the long remaining horizon and continued diplomatic incentives support a modestly higher estimate near 38%. Confidence is limited by the recent sharp, volatile repricing and the strict requirement for a mutually announced general pause.