Yes ↓ -7% 8/3/2026, 12:01:14
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
Unified market view
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -7%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 43¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:14
Live best ask 43¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:47:04
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
Watch triggers
- Best ask near 0.43
- Small positive recent momentum in Yes
- Book still shows No as favored
Why not now
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
Revisit when
Best ask near 0.43 · Small positive recent momentum in Yes · Book still shows No as favored
Execution guard
Price 43¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $492,795. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:47:04
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
43¢Volume (24h) ?
$202,191Liquidity ?
$492,795Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
60.0%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
42¢ 36,422.94
41¢ 106,063.11
40¢ 345,789.78
39¢ 123,106.64
38¢ 58,681.98
Asks
43¢ 59,144.66
44¢ 39,926.52
45¢ 35,109.26
46¢ 25,788.61
47¢ 7,400.1
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:21:07 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:07 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 42.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:01:20
The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus my estimate, with limited upside and a relatively tight spread making a short sale more attractive than buying.
Yes ↑ +3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:32
Small positive edge on Yes with strong bid support, though the spread and event uncertainty limit conviction.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:11
Slight bearish edge on Yes with strong ask-side pressure and recent fade from 0.415 to 0.405.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/2/2026, 12:02:07
No strong informational drift: price has been range-bound, spread is tight, and liquidity is ample. The current quote already reflects a balanced baseline, so there is no clear mispricing to exploit.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 11:28:32
$5,400 42¢
Buy · Yes 8/3/2026, 00:14:26
$6,150 41¢
Sell · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:46:27
$16,271 41¢