8/3/2026, 18:01:22 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
43¢
No clear edge versus the 43c ask; liquidity is good and prices are tightly ranged, but the implied probability is already near fair with only a slight lean against Yes.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask at 0.43 · Flat 1h/6h history · Only minor 1d/1w drift
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
64%
Market prices Yes at 0.43, but the no-change scenario is only modestly favored by orderbook/price history. Depth is skewed toward Yes, yet the 1d/1w drift is flat-to-down and there is no strong informational edge beyond a small favorite-lean to No.
8/3/2026, 12:01:14 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
43¢
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask near 0.43 · Small positive recent momentum in Yes · Book still shows No as favored
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-7% Confidence
62%
Market prices No change around 57%-58%; I estimate a somewhat lower chance of no change given a still-uncertain but not dominant easing/hiking path by Sep 2026. Recent uptick in Yes is more flow-driven than fundamental.
8/3/2026, 06:01:20 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
42¢
The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus my estimate, with limited upside and a relatively tight spread making a short sale more attractive than buying.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask at 0.42 · Price drifted down over 1w · Orderbook favors No side
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
Yes is priced at 0.42, but the market structure still favors a no-change outcome only modestly; recent drift and orderbook depth do not justify paying above fair value.
8/3/2026, 00:01:32 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
41¢
Small positive edge on Yes with strong bid support, though the spread and event uncertainty limit conviction.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid depth dominates ask depth · Yes trades near the ask but not above it · Recent 1d price drift supports Yes
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+3% Confidence
55%
No-change is slightly undervalued versus the current 0.41 ask, but the market is fairly efficient and recent price action is mixed.
8/2/2026, 18:01:11 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
41¢
Slight bearish edge on Yes with strong ask-side pressure and recent fade from 0.415 to 0.405.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes best ask 0.41 vs current 0.41 · Ask-side depth dominates Yes · 1d/6h/1h trend is lower for No odds
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
60%
Yes trades at 0.41, but the market still implies a modestly higher no-change chance than current pricing; the longer-run drift and heavy ask-side support on No suggest limited upside for Yes.
