Yes ↓ -3% 8/30/2026, 18:00:20
The primary outcome appears modestly above fair value after a broad downward trend and persistent sell-side depth.
Unified market view
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Watch
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 67%
Price at model run 51¢ Model run: 8/30/2026, 18:00:20
Live best ask 50¢ Live update: 8/30/2026, 19:37:09
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 51%, but its probability has fallen across the 1-hour, daily, and weekly horizons, while the orderbook shows substantially heavier ask depth. The model estimates a modestly lower probability near 48%; this view should be revisited if rate-cut expectations reverse or Yes regains sustained momentum.
Watch triggers
- Reassess if Yes breaks above 55%
- Reassess after major inflation or labor data
- Reassess if Fed guidance turns more dovish
Why not now
Yes is priced near 51%, but its probability has fallen across the 1-hour, daily, and weekly horizons, while the orderbook shows substantially heavier ask depth. The model estimates a modestly lower probability near 48%; this view should be revisited if rate-cut expectations reverse or Yes regains sustained momentum.
Revisit when
Reassess if Yes breaks above 55% · Reassess after major inflation or labor data · Reassess if Fed guidance turns more dovish
Execution guard
Price 50¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $312,778. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 8/30/2026, 19:37:09
Model stance
Leans lowerBest ask ?
50¢Volume (24h) ?
$654,816Liquidity ?
$312,778Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-18.7%Momentum ?
-3.9%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
49¢ 2,574.02
48¢ 17,134.98
47¢ 126,196.81
46¢ 96,632.87
45¢ 14,069.34
Asks
50¢ 31,624.91
51¢ 57,107.45
52¢ 98,160.01
53¢ 135,084.27
54¢ 53,009.5
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/30/2026, 19:11:12 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:13:12 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:15:09 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:17:12 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:19:12 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:21:12 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:23:12 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:25:13 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:27:13 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:29:26 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:31:12 49.5¢
8/30/2026, 19:32:13 49.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 8/30/2026, 12:50:47
The primary outcome appears modestly above estimated fair value, supported by persistent downward momentum and sell-side depth.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/30/2026, 12:43:41
Yes appears modestly below estimated fair value, but the edge is small and supported mainly by order-book and momentum signals rather than near-term policy evidence.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/30/2026, 12:00:16
The primary outcome appears modestly rich versus the current flow and depth, but the gap is narrow and may disappear if Fed expectations shift or new macro data surprises.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/30/2026, 06:00:15
The primary outcome appears modestly above fair value after a sustained decline in its market price, with orderbook depth leaning against further upside.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · Yes 8/30/2026, 18:29:39
$15,237 48.82¢
Buy · No 8/30/2026, 17:04:27
$6,466 49¢
Sell · Yes 8/30/2026, 16:55:25
$19,473 51¢
Buy · Yes 8/30/2026, 14:02:15
$12,634 52¢
Buy · No 8/30/2026, 13:45:28
$14,700 49¢