Yes ↓ -1% 8/3/2026, 18:01:22
No clear edge versus the 43c ask; liquidity is good and prices are tightly ranged, but the implied probability is already near fair with only a slight lean against Yes.
Unified market view
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 64%
Price at model run 43¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:01:22
Live best ask 43¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:50:15
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge versus the 43c ask; liquidity is good and prices are tightly ranged, but the implied probability is already near fair with only a slight lean against Yes.
Watch triggers
- Best ask at 0.43
- Flat 1h/6h history
- Only minor 1d/1w drift
Why not now
No clear edge versus the 43c ask; liquidity is good and prices are tightly ranged, but the implied probability is already near fair with only a slight lean against Yes.
Revisit when
Best ask at 0.43 · Flat 1h/6h history · Only minor 1d/1w drift
Execution guard
Price 43¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $477,785. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:50:15
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
43¢Volume (24h) ?
$146,368Liquidity ?
$477,785Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
62.7%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
42¢ 48,927.94
41¢ 99,516.45
40¢ 338,239.21
39¢ 122,065.64
38¢ 59,181.98
Asks
43¢ 53,700.36
44¢ 33,843.76
45¢ 32,905.4
46¢ 25,427.61
47¢ 7,400.1
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:11 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:07 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:46:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:48:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:49:10 42.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -7% 8/3/2026, 12:01:14
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:01:20
The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus my estimate, with limited upside and a relatively tight spread making a short sale more attractive than buying.
Yes ↑ +3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:32
Small positive edge on Yes with strong bid support, though the spread and event uncertainty limit conviction.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:11
Slight bearish edge on Yes with strong ask-side pressure and recent fade from 0.415 to 0.405.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 11:28:32
$5,400 42¢
Buy · Yes 8/3/2026, 00:14:26
$6,150 41¢
Sell · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:46:27
$16,271 41¢