Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:01:00
Price sits near my fair value with a tight spread and no decisive orderbook or trend signal. Edge is too small to justify a trade.
Unified market view
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 57%
Price at model run 56¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:00
Live best ask 56¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:41
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price sits near my fair value with a tight spread and no decisive orderbook or trend signal. Edge is too small to justify a trade.
Watch triggers
- 1w price up to 0.565
- 1d pullback from 0.585
- Tight 1-cent spread
Why not now
Price sits near my fair value with a tight spread and no decisive orderbook or trend signal. Edge is too small to justify a trade.
Revisit when
1w price up to 0.565 · 1d pullback from 0.585 · Tight 1-cent spread
Execution guard
Price 56¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $573,695. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:41
Signal
SellBest ask ?
56¢Volume (24h) ?
$311,313Liquidity ?
$573,695Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-67.3%Momentum ?
-1.8%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
55¢ 8,824.22
54¢ 30,055.96
53¢ 50,357.1
52¢ 15,837.78
51¢ 25,336.08
Asks
56¢ 71,766.46
57¢ 52,939.23
58¢ 382,148.79
59¢ 40,146.21
60¢ 120,676.16
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:07 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:20 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:06 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:06 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:08 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:08 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:06 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:09 55.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:01:01
Slight negative edge on Yes at current price; the market appears to be pricing a higher hike probability than fundamentals and orderbook support.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:26
Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price; liquidity is strong and spread is tight, but the book/price action point modestly lower.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:01:52
Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price, with liquidity favoring sellers and no strong upward momentum.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 12:02:26
The market is tightly ranged near 0.59 with strong liquidity and only a small perceived edge. No decisive mispricing is evident.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 14:01:02
$11,400 57¢
Sell · Yes 8/3/2026, 04:02:09
$12,799 56.27¢
Buy · Yes 8/3/2026, 03:48:44
$11,804 58¢
Buy · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:57:53
$7,488 57¢