8/3/2026, 18:00:51 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
56¢
Current price looks a bit above fair value given recent downside momentum and stronger bid support on No.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes best ask 0.56 is rich vs drift · No side has stronger depth · 1d price fell from 0.585 to 0.555
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
66%
Yes trades near 0.56, but recent drift is flat-to-down on 1d/6h and orderbook imbalance favors No; market appears slightly rich.
8/3/2026, 12:01:00 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
56¢
Price sits near my fair value with a tight spread and no decisive orderbook or trend signal. Edge is too small to justify a trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price up to 0.565 · 1d pullback from 0.585 · Tight 1-cent spread
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
57%
Current price 0.56 is close to fair; mild bullish bias from recent 1w drift up and balanced liquidity, but no strong catalyst for a clear edge.
8/3/2026, 06:01:01 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
57¢
Slight negative edge on Yes at current price; the market appears to be pricing a higher hike probability than fundamentals and orderbook support.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes best ask 0.57 · Ask depth exceeds bid depth · Fed hike is not base case
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
68%
Price at 0.57 looks a bit rich versus the likely Fed path; a 25 bps hike by Sep 2026 is not the base case absent a renewed inflation surge. Orderbook also shows more ask depth than bid depth on Yes, capping upside.
8/3/2026, 00:01:26 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
57¢
Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price; liquidity is strong and spread is tight, but the book/price action point modestly lower.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes best ask 0.58 vs last 0.57 · Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes · 24h price down 2 cents
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
Yes trades at 0.57, but recent drift and 24h move favor No slightly; orderbook also shows stronger ask-side depth on Yes, so the market may be a bit rich.
8/2/2026, 18:01:52 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
58¢
Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price, with liquidity favoring sellers and no strong upward momentum.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Ask depth far exceeds bid depth · 1-week price trend turned lower · Current price sits near recent range high
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
61%
Yes trades at 0.58-0.59, but the book is ask-heavy and recent 1-week drift has reversed down from 0.655 to 0.585, suggesting the market may still be a bit rich.
