Unified market view

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

Share to X Follow alerts Open on Polymarket

Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -6%

Confidence 66%

Price at model run 56¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:00:51

Live best ask 56¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:49:54

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Current price looks a bit above fair value given recent downside momentum and stronger bid support on No.

Watch triggers

Yes best ask 0.56 is rich vs drift
No side has stronger depth
1d price fell from 0.585 to 0.555

Why not now

Current price looks a bit above fair value given recent downside momentum and stronger bid support on No.

Revisit when

Yes best ask 0.56 is rich vs drift · No side has stronger depth · 1d price fell from 0.585 to 0.555

Execution guard

Price 56¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $539,510. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:49:54

Signal

Sell

Best ask ?

56¢

Volume (24h) ?

$216,074

Liquidity ?

$539,510

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-63.1%

Momentum ?

-1.8%

Volatility ?

0.1%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

55¢ 9,170.5

54¢ 28,236.96

53¢ 49,763.01

52¢ 20,461.4

51¢ 25,326.08

Asks

56¢ 53,609.29

57¢ 50,343.06

58¢ 335,234.8

59¢ 88,656.4

60¢ 60,763.85

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/3/2026, 18:23:09 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:25:06 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:27:06 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:29:09 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:31:09 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:33:08 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:35:06 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:37:10 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:39:09 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:41:06 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:43:09 55.5¢

8/3/2026, 18:44:09 55.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -6% 8/3/2026, 18:00:51

Current price looks a bit above fair value given recent downside momentum and stronger bid support on No.

Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:01:00

Price sits near my fair value with a tight spread and no decisive orderbook or trend signal. Edge is too small to justify a trade.

Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:01:01

Slight negative edge on Yes at current price; the market appears to be pricing a higher hike probability than fundamentals and orderbook support.

Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:26

Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price; liquidity is strong and spread is tight, but the book/price action point modestly lower.

Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:01:52

Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price, with liquidity favoring sellers and no strong upward momentum.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · Yes 8/3/2026, 14:01:02

$11,400 57¢

Sell · Yes 8/3/2026, 04:02:09

$12,799 56.27¢

Buy · Yes 8/3/2026, 03:48:44

$11,804 58¢

Buy · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:57:53

$7,488 57¢