Yes ↑ +4% 9/18/2026, 12:00:52
The model sees a modest positive divergence for Yes, supported by sustained momentum and orderbook imbalance, but the long horizon and policy uncertainty limit conviction.
Unified market view
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +4%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 53¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:00:52
Live best ask 57¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:56:03
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 52.5%, while strong one-week and one-day upward momentum, substantial bid-side depth, and recent repricing support a modestly higher estimated probability around 56.5%. Uncertainty remains high because the October 2026 decision is distant and macro conditions can change.
Watch triggers
- Reassess after major inflation data
- Reassess after Fed guidance changes
- Watch for loss of bid-side imbalance
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced near 52.5%, while strong one-week and one-day upward momentum, substantial bid-side depth, and recent repricing support a modestly higher estimated probability around 56.5%. Uncertainty remains high because the October 2026 decision is distant and macro conditions can change.
Revisit when
Reassess after major inflation data · Reassess after Fed guidance changes · Watch for loss of bid-side imbalance
Execution guard
Price 57¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $484,980. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:56:03
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
57¢Volume (24h) ?
$256,190Liquidity ?
$484,980Open interest ?
$1,744,825Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-12.8%Momentum ?
9.7%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
56¢ 16,127.35
55¢ 44,185.32
54¢ 56,771
53¢ 53,083.98
52¢ 5,064
Asks
57¢ 141,797.53
58¢ 59,627.26
59¢ 9,251.3
60¢ 5,043
61¢ 11,147.74
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:34:14 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:36:27 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:38:13 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:40:13 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:42:13 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:44:14 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:46:13 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:48:10 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:50:13 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:52:13 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:54:13 56.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:55:13 56.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +1% 9/18/2026, 06:00:39
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value near 50%, despite bullish orderbook pressure.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/18/2026, 00:00:36
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value after a rapid repricing, but the edge is small and uncertainty is high.
Yes ↑ +2% 9/17/2026, 18:00:30
Yes appears slightly below estimated fair value based on momentum and order-book support, but the edge is small and highly uncertain this far before expiry.
Yes ↑ +2% 9/17/2026, 12:00:44
The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value after a rapid repricing, but the edge is small and uncertainty remains high.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:31:12
$12,571 44¢
Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:29:40
$6,126 43¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:10:24
$5,628 54.49¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 12:26:48
$5,300 53¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 12:22:57
$5,300 53¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 08:58:04
$5,720 52¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 08:57:06
$7,575 51¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 08:56:24
$18,870 51¢