Yes ↑ +3% 8/3/2026, 12:02:37
Current pricing looks efficient near 34% with a tight spread and balanced depth. Positive deal momentum exists, but qualification hurdles remain high, limiting clear edge.
Unified market view
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +3%
Confidence 55%
Price at model run 34¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:37
Live best ask 35¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:46:00
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current pricing looks efficient near 34% with a tight spread and balanced depth. Positive deal momentum exists, but qualification hurdles remain high, limiting clear edge.
Watch triggers
- Best bid/ask is tight
- Order book depth is balanced
- Recent price is flat
Why not now
Current pricing looks efficient near 34% with a tight spread and balanced depth. Positive deal momentum exists, but qualification hurdles remain high, limiting clear edge.
Revisit when
Best bid/ask is tight · Order book depth is balanced · Recent price is flat
Execution guard
Price 35¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $210,743. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:46:00
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
35¢Volume (24h) ?
$35,411Liquidity ?
$210,743Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
44.1%Momentum ?
-1.4%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
33¢ 6,680.92
32¢ 27,210.65
31¢ 42,297.27
30¢ 28,722.25
29¢ 765.55
Asks
35¢ 11,416.49
36¢ 11,531.05
37¢ 12,452.82
38¢ 2,400
39¢ 3,224.03
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:11 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:08 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:21 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:11 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:08 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:10 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:11 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:10 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:08 34¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 34¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:02:29
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the evidence. Orderbook is balanced, but recent price action slopes down and there is no catalyst suggesting near-term breakthrough.
Yes ↑ +5% 8/3/2026, 00:02:14
Modest upside edge exists versus current price, but resolution still depends on a concrete final text and formal adoption, so conviction is limited.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:47
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the currently available diplomatic status and strict resolution criteria, despite some recent upward drift in the market.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 12:02:01
Price has risen over the past day, but the structural hurdle for a qualifying final deal remains high and the book does not show bullish confirmation at this level.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.