8/3/2026, 18:03:13 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
33¢
Price has drifted up on diplomacy headlines, but the remaining requirement is a specific qualifying instrument, which is hard to achieve on this timeline. Risk/reward favors fading the current Yes ...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes trades near 0.34-0.35 · Deal must be concrete and signed/adopted · Text ambiguity can keep market open
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
62%
Market implies about 34%-35% for Yes, but the bar is a signed or formally adopted final deal with concrete nuclear limits by date. Current price still looks slightly rich versus the high execution and text-risk, despite ongoing diplomacy.
8/3/2026, 12:02:37 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
34¢
Current pricing looks efficient near 34% with a tight spread and balanced depth. Positive deal momentum exists, but qualification hurdles remain high, limiting clear edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best bid/ask is tight · Order book depth is balanced · Recent price is flat
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+3% Confidence
55%
Price implies ~34%. The June 2026 framework makes some deal plausible, but the market still needs a specific signed/adopted instrument with measurable nuclear limits; that combination is uncertain, so only a modest premium over price.
8/3/2026, 06:02:29 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
36¢
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the evidence. Orderbook is balanced, but recent price action slopes down and there is no catalyst suggesting near-term breakthrough.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price above bid-ask midpoint · 1h and 24h drift lower · Balanced orderbook, no bullish skew
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
70%
Yes trades around 0.35-0.36, but the market structure and recent drift favor No; the probability of a qualifying signed final deal by the deadline appears slightly below price.
8/3/2026, 00:02:14 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
35¢
Modest upside edge exists versus current price, but resolution still depends on a concrete final text and formal adoption, so conviction is limited.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price up from 0.26 to 0.355 · 6h and 1h trend remain positive · tight spread and solid liquidity
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+5% Confidence
58%
Price is 0.35 while recent official-diplomacy momentum and market drift upward suggest a somewhat higher-than-implied chance of a qualifying signed/adopted instrument.
8/2/2026, 18:01:47 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
34¢
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the currently available diplomatic status and strict resolution criteria, despite some recent upward drift in the market.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No announced qualifying signed final deal · Resolution standard is strict and text-dependent · Yes price has risen to 0.34 but lacks confirmation
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
63%
Market implies ~34% Yes; with no concrete signed/adopted final deal yet and text requirements strict, the path to qualification looks modestly weaker than price suggests.
