Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:02:57
Price is near fair value with mixed momentum and a balanced-to-bearish short-term book against a still-elevated long-term repricing. No clear edge at the current 0.61 level.
Unified market view
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 54%
Price at model run 61¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:57
Live best ask 49¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:42
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price is near fair value with mixed momentum and a balanced-to-bearish short-term book against a still-elevated long-term repricing. No clear edge at the current 0.61 level.
Watch triggers
- Best bid/ask already tight
- Short-term momentum is modest
- Orderbook imbalance favors No
Why not now
Price is near fair value with mixed momentum and a balanced-to-bearish short-term book against a still-elevated long-term repricing. No clear edge at the current 0.61 level.
Revisit when
Best bid/ask already tight · Short-term momentum is modest · Orderbook imbalance favors No
Execution guard
Price 49¢ · spread 4 pts · liquidity $51,626. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:42
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
49¢Volume (24h) ?
$38,465Liquidity ?
$51,626Open interest ?
—Spread ?
6¢Depth imbalance ?
96.6%Momentum ?
-18.5%Volatility ?
1.4%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
44¢ 69.42
43¢ 535.56
42¢ 2,632.39
41¢ 2,500
40¢ 667.2
Asks
50¢ 15.33
51¢ 15
52¢ 10
53¢ 60
54¢ 10
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:07 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:20 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:06 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:10 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 49.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:09 50.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -6% 8/3/2026, 06:02:35
Price has rallied sharply over the week but the catalyst required for settlement is still absent, leaving the Yes side modestly overpriced versus the likely no-resolution path.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:49
The market is near fair value with tight spread and strong bid depth, but the current price looks close to a reasonable estimate of the event odds, leaving little clear edge.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:16
Slight bearish edge versus current price, with supportive No-side liquidity and recent short-term cooling after the weekly run-up.
Yes ↓ -12% 8/2/2026, 12:02:19
The Yes side appears overpriced relative to the lack of clear catalysts, while recent price momentum has already run up sharply.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.