8/3/2026, 18:03:05 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
53¢
No clear edge: the market is near fair value with modest bullish orderbook pressure, but the event requires a rare official announcement and the recent move does not show a decisive catalyst.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Current price near fair value · Official disarmament is a high bar · Orderbook skew favors Yes but only modestly
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
62%
Price around 0.53 implies meaningful odds of a formal Hamas disarmament announcement, but the contract is stringent and credible official disarmament by year-end still looks unlikely. Recent price strength and bid imbalance are offset by the lack of concrete qualifying signals.
8/3/2026, 12:02:57 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
61¢
Price is near fair value with mixed momentum and a balanced-to-bearish short-term book against a still-elevated long-term repricing. No clear edge at the current 0.61 level.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best bid/ask already tight · Short-term momentum is modest · Orderbook imbalance favors No
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
54%
Market is already pricing a meaningful chance of disarmament, but there is only mild follow-through in recent price action and no strong orderbook or history signal justifying a larger mispricing. Slight upside if policy momentum continues.
8/3/2026, 06:02:35 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
60¢
Price has rallied sharply over the week but the catalyst required for settlement is still absent, leaving the Yes side modestly overpriced versus the likely no-resolution path.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No confirmed disarmament announcement · Strict official-source requirement · Yes trading above 0.60 despite uncertainty
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
64%
At 0.60, Yes looks slightly rich given no evidence of an actual Hamas disarmament announcement; recent price strength appears momentum-driven, while the event standard is strict and binary.
8/3/2026, 00:02:49 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
63¢
The market is near fair value with tight spread and strong bid depth, but the current price looks close to a reasonable estimate of the event odds, leaving little clear edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price already elevated at 0.63 · Tight 1-cent spread · Strong bid depth vs ask
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
66%
Price 0.63 already reflects a meaningful chance of a formal Hamas disarmament announcement; such official commitments remain structurally unlikely, despite recent upward momentum and bid support.
8/2/2026, 18:02:16 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
64¢
Slight bearish edge versus current price, with supportive No-side liquidity and recent short-term cooling after the weekly run-up.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes trades near 0.64 despite no new disarmament announcement · 1d price fell 2.5 points from 0.66 to 0.635 · No side has stronger top-of-book ask depth balance
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
58%
Yes is priced at 0.64 with no fresh catalyst; the market is slightly overextended after a sharp 7d rise, while current orderbook and 1d drift favor a modest pullback.
