Unified market view

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

View live market Follow alerts Share to X

Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Model leans lower

Data gap

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 35%

Price at model run 24.5¢ Model run: 9/25/2026, 18:00:45

Live best ask 25¢ Live update: 9/25/2026, 18:06:37

Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · matching snapshot or live orderbook data is missing

Model OpenAI

Estimated probability is about 22%, slightly below the 24.5% midpoint. The sharp recent repricing and heavier ask depth support a modest bearish lean, but no catalyst is provided, so the edge is uncertain.

Watch triggers

Verified team news that materially shifts title chances.
Price stabilizes and orderbook depth becomes balanced.
A sustained reversal in the recent repricing.

Why confirmation is still needed

Revisit when

Verified team news that materially shifts title chances. · Price stabilizes and orderbook depth becomes balanced. · A sustained reversal in the recent repricing.

Execution guard

Price 25¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $339,302. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/25/2026, 18:06:37

Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.

Price & order-book rules

Watch

Best ask ?

25¢

Volume (24h) ?

$443,302

Liquidity ?

$339,302

Open interest ?

$2,277,506

Spread ?

2¢

Depth imbalance ?

-0.8%

Momentum ?

-34.7%

Volatility ?

2.2%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No directional setup under these rules

Rule notes

Price momentum and order-book depth do not jointly meet the directional thresholds.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

23¢ 1,213

22¢ 12,421.2

21¢ 11,821.61

20¢ 16,785.73

19¢ 18

Asks

25¢ 1,017.62

26¢ 3,265.81

27¢ 6,570.62

28¢ 30,167.01

29¢ 1,926.64

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/25/2026, 17:40:14 24¢

9/25/2026, 17:42:14 24¢

9/25/2026, 17:44:14 24¢

9/25/2026, 17:46:15 24¢

9/25/2026, 17:48:14 24¢

9/25/2026, 17:50:14 24¢

9/25/2026, 17:52:15 24¢

9/25/2026, 17:54:14 24.5¢

9/25/2026, 17:56:15 24.5¢

9/25/2026, 17:58:14 24.5¢

9/25/2026, 18:00:15 24.5¢

9/25/2026, 18:01:15 24.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 9/25/2026, 18:00:45

The Yes outcome appears modestly above fair value after a sharp repricing, though the lack of catalyst details makes this view uncertain. Reassess if news or order flow changes materially.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 9/25/2026, 14:00:57

$73,732 65¢

Buy · No 9/25/2026, 13:59:59

$92,856 65¢