Yes → 0% 8/3/2026, 12:02:15
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
Unified market view
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes → 0%
Confidence 57%
Price at model run 74¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:15
Live best ask 76¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:41
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
Watch triggers
- Yes at 0.74 near estimated fair value
- Tight 1-cent spread
- No fresh escalation catalyst
Why not now
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
Revisit when
Yes at 0.74 near estimated fair value · Tight 1-cent spread · No fresh escalation catalyst
Execution guard
Price 76¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $87,385. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:41
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
76¢Volume (24h) ?
$65,188Liquidity ?
$87,385Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
-60.0%Momentum ?
0.7%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
74¢ 1,923.26
73¢ 1,075.45
72¢ 594.7
71¢ 483.32
70¢ 951.83
Asks
76¢ 3,539.96
77¢ 14,972.08
78¢ 985
80¢ 210
81¢ 434.44
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:21:08 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 75¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 06:02:06
Yes looks slightly overpriced relative to the absence of immediate escalation signals; orderbook and recent trade levels suggest limited further upside near current levels.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:20
Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.