8/3/2026, 18:02:46 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
74¢
Current price looks broadly efficient with modest upside to Yes, but orderbook skew and long-dated uncertainty reduce conviction.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid support is strong · Spread is only 2 cents · No clear catalyst in history
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+3% Confidence
55%
Price 0.74 implies a high but not extreme Yes probability; no recent escalatory action is evident, and the market has been stable despite heavy bid support. Still, the event horizon is long and geopolitical tail risk remains, limiting edge.
8/3/2026, 12:02:15 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
74¢
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.74 near estimated fair value · Tight 1-cent spread · No fresh escalation catalyst
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
57%
Price already reflects a high probability of no US strike; near-term news risk remains, but no clear informational edge versus 0.74.
8/3/2026, 06:02:06 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
74¢
Yes looks slightly overpriced relative to the absence of immediate escalation signals; orderbook and recent trade levels suggest limited further upside near current levels.
Triggers Best ask only 0.75 · 1w Yes rose sharply already · No new incident in summary
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-9% Confidence
63%
Price at 0.74 implies a high chance of no US strike; recent drift is upward but the market already prices substantial risk. With no fresh catalyst and a wide time window, upside appears capped.
8/3/2026, 00:02:20 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
74¢
Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price near top of recent range · Orderbook nearly balanced · Long time to expiry reduces immediate edge
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
67%
Yes is priced above 0.72-0.74, but the market has recently run up sharply and now shows only slight bid/ask balance; the event window is long enough for renewed conflict risk, yet current price already embeds substantial peace optimism, leaving limited upside.
