Yes ↑ +3% 8/3/2026, 18:02:46
Current price looks broadly efficient with modest upside to Yes, but orderbook skew and long-dated uncertainty reduce conviction.
Unified market view
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +3%
Confidence 55%
Price at model run 74¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:02:46
Live best ask 76¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:50:20
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current price looks broadly efficient with modest upside to Yes, but orderbook skew and long-dated uncertainty reduce conviction.
Watch triggers
- Yes bid support is strong
- Spread is only 2 cents
- No clear catalyst in history
Why not now
Current price looks broadly efficient with modest upside to Yes, but orderbook skew and long-dated uncertainty reduce conviction.
Revisit when
Yes bid support is strong · Spread is only 2 cents · No clear catalyst in history
Execution guard
Price 76¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $93,737. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:50:20
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
76¢Volume (24h) ?
$72,551Liquidity ?
$93,737Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
48.9%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
75¢ 10,750.95
74¢ 2,659.03
73¢ 2,134
72¢ 1,311.08
71¢ 438.81
Asks
76¢ 1,806.64
77¢ 1,967.09
78¢ 1,030.53
79¢ 300
80¢ 825
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 76¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:11 76¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:09 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 76.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:07 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:46:10 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:48:10 75.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:49:10 75.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 8/3/2026, 12:02:15
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
Yes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 06:02:06
Yes looks slightly overpriced relative to the absence of immediate escalation signals; orderbook and recent trade levels suggest limited further upside near current levels.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:20
Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.