Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 12:01:52
Slight bearish edge on Yes versus current price. The recent decline and strong No-side depth suggest modest downside unless fresh de-escalation headlines emerge.
Unified market view
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 69¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:52
Live best ask 70¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:47:19
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Slight bearish edge on Yes versus current price. The recent decline and strong No-side depth suggest modest downside unless fresh de-escalation headlines emerge.
Watch triggers
- Yes price slid from 0.695 to 0.675 in 6h
- No has much stronger top-N bid depth
- Spread is tight, so edge is actionable
Why not now
Slight bearish edge on Yes versus current price. The recent decline and strong No-side depth suggest modest downside unless fresh de-escalation headlines emerge.
Revisit when
Yes price slid from 0.695 to 0.675 in 6h · No has much stronger top-N bid depth · Spread is tight, so edge is actionable
Execution guard
Price 70¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $78,341. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:47:19
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
70¢Volume (24h) ?
$70,163Liquidity ?
$78,341Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-62.7%Momentum ?
3.0%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
69¢ 1,930.75
68¢ 2,866.32
67¢ 1,479.99
66¢ 205
65¢ 125.88
Asks
70¢ 8,577.85
71¢ 14,680.64
72¢ 469.99
73¢ 4,949.79
74¢ 172.17
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 69.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:01:39
The price has drifted up, but the book and recent action do not show a strong enough mispricing to justify a fresh entry at 0.70.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:51
No clear pricing edge at current levels; liquidity is healthy but the market is already near the upper end of its recent range, so the expected value is roughly fair.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:29
Current Yes price seems slightly above fair value; momentum is strong but likely overextended relative to near-term orderbook and recent drift.
Yes ↑ +3% 8/2/2026, 12:01:15
Current price looks fairly efficient: momentum favors Yes, but the move is already reflected and spread is tight. No strong mispricing or catalyst visible.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 14:48:38
$6,061 69¢