8/3/2026, 18:02:18 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
69¢
Current price appears a bit rich versus the remaining event risk; orderbook leans against further upside and there is no strong fresh catalyst to justify paying 0.69.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask 0.70 vs bid 0.69 · Ask depth heavier than bid depth · Price rose 4c in 24h
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
64%
Price at 0.69 implies a high continuation probability; recent drift is up, but the market is already near the upper end of its recent range and ask depth exceeds bid depth, limiting upside. Net edge looks slightly negative at current levels.
8/3/2026, 12:01:52 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
69¢
Slight bearish edge on Yes versus current price. The recent decline and strong No-side depth suggest modest downside unless fresh de-escalation headlines emerge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price slid from 0.695 to 0.675 in 6h · No has much stronger top-N bid depth · Spread is tight, so edge is actionable
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
58%
Yes is priced around 0.68-0.69, but the market has drifted down over the last 6h and orderbook depth favors No. Ongoing ceasefire is still plausible, yet current price looks a bit rich given the recent softening and balanced headline risk.
8/3/2026, 06:01:39 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
70¢
The price has drifted up, but the book and recent action do not show a strong enough mispricing to justify a fresh entry at 0.70.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price near recent highs · Spread is tight but edge is small · Orderbook favors No on depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
63%
Yes is priced at 0.70, but the market still has meaningful geopolitical tail risk and a ceasefire can fail abruptly; however current price already reflects a high continuation probability, limiting upside.
8/3/2026, 00:01:51 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
68¢
No clear pricing edge at current levels; liquidity is healthy but the market is already near the upper end of its recent range, so the expected value is roughly fair.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes is priced near 0.68 · Orderbook slightly ask-heavy on Yes · Recent surge may have mostly repriced risk
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
Price at 0.68 already reflects a high ceasefire survival chance; ask depth outweighs bid depth on Yes and recent 1d move is steeply up, leaving limited upside and some mean-reversion risk.
8/2/2026, 18:01:29 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
66¢
Current Yes price seems slightly above fair value; momentum is strong but likely overextended relative to near-term orderbook and recent drift.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.66 vs balanced book · 24h spike may be overextended · 6h/1h trend softened
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
58%
Yes trades at 0.66 after a sharp 24h jump, but the move looks stretched versus the modest 1h/6h drift and only mild orderbook support. With nearly 3 months to expiry, headline risk is still real, yet current price appears a bit rich.
