Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:02:30
The Yes side appears slightly overpriced versus the recent downward trend and weak bullish follow-through. Orderbook depth and price action favor fading Yes at current levels.
Unified market view
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 74%
Price at model run 10¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:30
Live best ask 9¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:47:02
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes side appears slightly overpriced versus the recent downward trend and weak bullish follow-through. Orderbook depth and price action favor fading Yes at current levels.
Watch triggers
- Yes at 0.10 vs implied low event odds
- 1d/1w trend down
- No side dominates depth
Why not now
The Yes side appears slightly overpriced versus the recent downward trend and weak bullish follow-through. Orderbook depth and price action favor fading Yes at current levels.
Revisit when
Yes at 0.10 vs implied low event odds · 1d/1w trend down · No side dominates depth
Execution guard
Price 9¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $60,531. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:47:02
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
9¢Volume (24h) ?
$70,453Liquidity ?
$60,531Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
67.1%Momentum ?
-5.6%Volatility ?
1.9%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
8¢ 2,021.81
7¢ 11,098.93
6¢ 6,021.79
5¢ 7,489.84
4¢ 3,180
Asks
9¢ 1,600.31
10¢ 2,306.53
11¢ 350
12¢ 350
13¢ 1,257.25
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:21:07 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:07 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 8.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:01:45
No clear edge versus the 9% price and liquidity is healthy, so the prudent call is to wait rather than chase a low-probability geopolitical event.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:57
Current Yes price looks roughly efficient: there is some buy-side support, but No remains heavily favored and the market already embeds a low closure probability. No clear mispricing or catalyst ju...
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:01:23
No clear mispricing: Yes is drifting down, but the spread is tight and the market already prices a low closure probability. Edge is modest at best, so waiting is preferable.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 12:01:09
Price is efficient in a thin event-driven market; the spread is tight but there is no clear mispricing or new closure signal to justify entry.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.