8/3/2026, 18:02:24 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
8¢
No clear positive edge at the current 8% price; the market already reflects low closure odds and liquidity is adequate but not compelling enough to buy.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes probability only 8% · No side dominates orderbook · Price trend down over 1d/1w
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
68%
Yes is priced at 8%, but the broad airspace-closure threshold is high and there is no evidence of imminent official action. Recent drift and orderbook favor No, so Yes remains slightly overpriced.
8/3/2026, 12:02:30 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
10¢
The Yes side appears slightly overpriced versus the recent downward trend and weak bullish follow-through. Orderbook depth and price action favor fading Yes at current levels.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.10 vs implied low event odds · 1d/1w trend down · No side dominates depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
74%
Yes trades at 0.10, but the market has been drifting lower on 1d/1w horizons and current liquidity/orderbook favors No. Absent a fresh geopolitical shock or official closure signal, the true probability looks below price.
8/3/2026, 06:01:45 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
9¢
No clear edge versus the 9% price and liquidity is healthy, so the prudent call is to wait rather than chase a low-probability geopolitical event.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price already near 9% · No fresh closure catalyst · Stable short-term tape
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
64%
The market implies ~9% for a broad Israeli airspace closure; that remains plausible but not especially likely absent a new acute escalation. Orderbook and recent price action are stable, with no strong catalyst suggesting a repricing higher.
8/3/2026, 00:01:57 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
11¢
Current Yes price looks roughly efficient: there is some buy-side support, but No remains heavily favored and the market already embeds a low closure probability. No clear mispricing or catalyst ju...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth · No still priced around 0.89 · Yes has trended down over 1d/1w
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
72%
Yes trades near 0.11, but the bar is a broad Israel airspace closure and current price is still above zero risk given regional volatility. Orderbook favors Yes slightly, yet the longer-term drift and dominant No pricing imply limited upside and a small negative edge on Yes at this level.
8/2/2026, 18:01:23 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
13¢
No clear mispricing: Yes is drifting down, but the spread is tight and the market already prices a low closure probability. Edge is modest at best, so waiting is preferable.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price fell over 1d and 1h · Top-of-book asks exceed bids for Yes · Tight spread limits immediate edge
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
72%
Market implies a low-but-nontrivial chance; recent price action and orderbook are weak for Yes, with 1d/1w downtrend and ask-heavy pressure near the top of book.
