Unified market view

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Buy No

Model leans lower

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 55%

Price at model run 83¢ Model run: 9/4/2026, 06:01:15

Live best ask 83¢ Live update: 9/4/2026, 06:45:01

Model OpenAI

Yes is priced near 0.83, while the model assigns roughly 0.81 probability. The recent rebound and strong bid depth provide support, but the one-day and one-week trends remain materially negative, leaving modest downside risk.

Watch triggers

Reassess if Yes sustains above 0.86
Reassess after major arena leaderboard updates
Reassess if Yes falls below 0.76

Why confirmation is still needed

Revisit when

Reassess if Yes sustains above 0.86 · Reassess after major arena leaderboard updates · Reassess if Yes falls below 0.76

Execution guard

Price 83¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $69,504. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/4/2026, 06:45:01

Model stance

Leans higher

Best ask ?

83¢

Volume (24h) ?

$151,429

Liquidity ?

$69,504

Open interest ?

$296,100

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

27.2%

Momentum ?

6.5%

Volatility ?

1.1%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

82¢ 1,522.44

81¢ 1,110.59

80¢ 13,226.1

79¢ 1,991.91

78¢ 5,055

Asks

83¢ 25.9

84¢ 3,925.58

85¢ 4,995.28

86¢ 1,273.99

87¢ 2,880

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/4/2026, 06:21:10 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:23:12 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:25:12 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:27:14 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:29:12 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:31:27 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:33:12 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:35:10 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:37:13 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:39:13 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:41:09 82.5¢

9/4/2026, 06:42:13 82.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 9/4/2026, 06:01:15

The market price appears slightly above estimated fair value, though the edge is modest and liquidity supports the current level.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · Yes 9/4/2026, 04:20:51

$5,375 80¢

Sell · Yes 9/4/2026, 03:38:58

$7,901 75¢