Yes ↓ -4% 9/27/2026, 12:04:32
At roughly 56%, Yes looks modestly overpriced: only about two months remain and the rule requires a clear official announcement. Confidence is limited; formal U.S.
Unified market view
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Data gapExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 56%
Price at model run 56.05¢ Model run: 9/27/2026, 12:04:32
Live best ask 60.5¢ Live update: 9/28/2026, 13:08:55
Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · the prediction snapshot is stale
Model OpenAI
Model output exists, but it is stale and should not guide a current view.
Watch triggers
- An official U.S. announcement explicitly ending or suspending the blockade.
- A diplomatic breakthrough or escalation that materially changes the outlook.
Why confirmation is still needed
Model output exists, but it is stale and should not guide a current view.
Revisit when
An official U.S. announcement explicitly ending or suspending the blockade. · A diplomatic breakthrough or escalation that materially changes the outlook.
Execution guard
Price 60.5¢ · spread 1.5 pts · liquidity $183,526. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/28/2026, 13:08:55
Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.
Price & order-book rules
WatchBest ask ?
60.5¢Volume (24h) ?
$59,644Liquidity ?
$183,526Open interest ?
$2,364,650Spread ?
2.1¢Depth imbalance ?
-61.9%Momentum ?
10.0%Volatility ?
0.4%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No directional setup under these rules
Rule notes
- Price momentum and order-book depth do not jointly meet the directional thresholds.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
58.3¢ 284
58.1¢ 100
57.7¢ 44.98
57.6¢ 200
56.8¢ 446.09
Asks
60.4¢ 243.4
60.5¢ 25
60.9¢ 154
61¢ 3,900.74
61.4¢ 250
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/28/2026, 12:45:14 59.5¢
9/28/2026, 12:47:13 59.5¢
9/28/2026, 12:49:26 59.6¢
9/28/2026, 12:51:14 59.7¢
9/28/2026, 12:53:28 59.7¢
9/28/2026, 12:55:15 59.7¢
9/28/2026, 12:57:09 59.75¢
9/28/2026, 12:59:14 59.8¢
9/28/2026, 13:01:28 59.8¢
9/28/2026, 13:03:25 59.75¢
9/28/2026, 13:05:14 59.45¢
9/28/2026, 13:06:13 59.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -6% 9/27/2026, 06:03:47
At 55.9%, Yes appears somewhat above my roughly 50% estimate. A qualifying announcement remains plausible, so the edge is modest; reassess with official U.S. policy or diplomatic developments.
Yes ↑ +3% 9/24/2026, 18:03:00
The model estimates Yes near 66%, slightly above the market price. This modest gap is uncertain and should be revisited if official policy signals or evidence of a durable blockade materially change.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/23/2026, 06:01:59
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value, though the edge is small and long-term momentum is supportive.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/28/2026, 12:15:29
$5,000 41.48¢
Buy · Yes 9/28/2026, 07:53:11
$5,000 28.74¢
Buy · No 9/28/2026, 05:57:32
$9,000 75¢
Sell · Yes 9/28/2026, 05:44:50
$5,814 46.73¢
Sell · Yes 9/28/2026, 05:44:50
$7,603 56.21¢