9/27/2026, 12:04:32 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
56.05¢
The market’s roughly 56% quote seems slightly high given the short remaining window and strict requirement for an explicit official termination announcement. A diplomatic breakthrough could still raise the probability, so the edge is modest.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers An official U.S. announcement explicitly ending or suspending the blockade. · A diplomatic breakthrough or escalation that materially changes the outlook.
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
56%
The market’s roughly 56% quote seems slightly high given the short remaining window and strict requirement for an explicit official termination announcement. A diplomatic breakthrough could still raise the probability, so the edge is modest.
9/27/2026, 06:03:47 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
55.85¢
I estimate Yes at about 50%, below the 55.9% market price. An official end announcement by year-end is plausible, but the remaining time and recent downward price trend do not support the market’s higher probability with confidence.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers An official U.S. announcement ending or suspending the blockade · A confirmed diplomatic agreement affecting the blockade · Official signs of continued or expanded blockade policy
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
48%
I estimate Yes at about 50%, below the 55.9% market price. An official end announcement by year-end is plausible, but the remaining time and recent downward price trend do not support the market’s higher probability with confidence.
9/24/2026, 18:03:00 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
63.45¢
At a market price near 63.5%, Yes looks modestly underpriced: several months remain for a general end or suspension to be officially announced, and recent momentum supports repricing. Strict announcement criteria and geopolitical uncertainty limit the edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers A clear official announcement of a general end or suspension would raise the estimate. · Evidence the blockade will persist, or only narrow exemptions are offered, would lower it.
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+3% Confidence
46%
At a market price near 63.5%, Yes looks modestly underpriced: several months remain for a general end or suspension to be officially announced, and recent momentum supports repricing. Strict announcement criteria and geopolitical uncertainty limit the edge.
9/23/2026, 06:01:59 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
64.5¢
The market implies a 64.5% chance, but the heavy ask-side depth, recent one-hour and six-hour declines, and substantial event uncertainty suggest a modestly lower fair probability near 63%. Longer-term momentum remains positive, limiting conviction.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Official U.S. announcement ending or suspending the blockade · Sustained move below 0.62 or above 0.68 · Major escalation or diplomatic agreement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
The market implies a 64.5% chance, but the heavy ask-side depth, recent one-hour and six-hour declines, and substantial event uncertainty suggest a modestly lower fair probability near 63%. Longer-term momentum remains positive, limiting conviction.
