Yes ↓ -4% 8/30/2026, 18:01:56
The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value, so the classification is buy under the stated convention.
Unified market view
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Watch
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 61.5¢ Model run: 8/30/2026, 18:01:56
Live best ask 60.4¢ Live update: 8/30/2026, 19:37:09
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 61.5%, but the one-week decline and substantial ask-side depth indicate modest downside pressure. A model probability around 58% leaves a small negative edge, with uncertainty because the recent six-hour rebound is strong.
Watch triggers
- Reassess after an official blockade announcement
- Reassess if Yes breaks above 0.65
- Reassess if Yes falls below 0.55
Why not now
Yes is priced near 61.5%, but the one-week decline and substantial ask-side depth indicate modest downside pressure. A model probability around 58% leaves a small negative edge, with uncertainty because the recent six-hour rebound is strong.
Revisit when
Reassess after an official blockade announcement · Reassess if Yes breaks above 0.65 · Reassess if Yes falls below 0.55
Execution guard
Price 60.4¢ · spread 0.7 pts · liquidity $198,021. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 8/30/2026, 19:37:09
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
60.4¢Volume (24h) ?
$51,902Liquidity ?
$198,021Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.9¢Depth imbalance ?
-58.1%Momentum ?
3.8%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
60¢ 22
59.8¢ 83.61
59.7¢ 19.99
59.6¢ 250
58.9¢ 387.55
Asks
60.9¢ 210
61¢ 800
61.1¢ 128.53
61.3¢ 92
61.4¢ 1,650
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/30/2026, 19:15:09 61.2¢
8/30/2026, 19:17:12 61.2¢
8/30/2026, 19:19:12 60.45¢
8/30/2026, 19:21:12 60¢
8/30/2026, 19:23:12 60.05¢
8/30/2026, 19:25:13 60¢
8/30/2026, 19:27:13 59.95¢
8/30/2026, 19:29:25 59.2¢
8/30/2026, 19:31:12 59.7¢
8/30/2026, 19:33:13 60.05¢
8/30/2026, 19:35:13 60.65¢
8/30/2026, 19:36:13 60.75¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 8/30/2026, 12:51:49
The market price appears modestly above the estimated Yes probability after a sustained decline.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/30/2026, 12:44:33
The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value, creating a modest positive-value classification for buying Yes.
Yes ↓ -7% 8/30/2026, 12:01:08
The current price sits above the estimated fair value, with orderbook pressure and multi-day weakness pointing to modest downside risk.
Yes ↓ -12% 8/30/2026, 06:01:20
Yes appears modestly overpriced relative to the need for a formal, unambiguous U.S. announcement.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.