Unified market view

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Model leans lower

Hold: Efficient price

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↓ -1%

Confidence 58%

Price at model run 60.4¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:01:19

Live best ask 60¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 17:01:47

Model OpenAI

The market implies about a 60% chance of an official end announcement, but the policy definition requires a clear, authorized, general suspension rather than partial concessions.

Watch triggers

Official announcement of a general blockade suspension
Verified escalation or policy entrenchment
Sustained break below 0.58 or above 0.63

Why confirmation is still needed

The market implies about a 60% chance of an official end announcement, but the policy definition requires a clear, authorized, general suspension rather than partial concessions.

Revisit when

Official announcement of a general blockade suspension · Verified escalation or policy entrenchment · Sustained break below 0.58 or above 0.63

Execution guard

Price 60¢ · spread 0.2 pts · liquidity $211,193. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/18/2026, 17:01:47

Model stance

Watch

Best ask ?

60¢

Volume (24h) ?

$125,465

Liquidity ?

$211,193

Open interest ?

$2,272,144

Spread ?

0.2¢

Depth imbalance ?

-29.1%

Momentum ?

0.1%

Volatility ?

0.1%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

59.8¢ 700

59.5¢ 767.51

59.3¢ 1,085

59.2¢ 1,320

59.1¢ 2,966.92

Asks

60¢ 118

60.4¢ 563.54

60.6¢ 10,289

60.7¢ 983

60.8¢ 500

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/18/2026, 16:37:14 60.1¢

9/18/2026, 16:39:14 60.1¢

9/18/2026, 16:41:14 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:43:14 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:45:15 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:47:14 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:49:18 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:51:14 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:53:15 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:55:14 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:57:14 59.9¢

9/18/2026, 16:58:14 59.9¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -1% 9/18/2026, 12:01:19

Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value, with orderbook pressure and recent momentum favoring downside.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 9/18/2026, 08:32:49

$5,349 90¢

Sell · No 9/18/2026, 07:56:28

$5,815 40.1¢

Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 06:35:45

$7,744 60¢

Sell · No 9/18/2026, 03:12:40

$5,589 89¢

Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 02:23:03

$7,418 60¢

Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 02:23:03

$7,755 60¢

Buy · No 9/18/2026, 02:20:39

$5,040 40¢

Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 02:14:22

$7,744 60¢