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Prediction history

Market #3279595

8/3/2026, 18:01:09 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 55¢

Current price is near fair value with tight spread and no strong edge; orderbook supports Zheng but not enough for a clear buy.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask only slightly above last trade · Bid depth exceeds ask depth · Recent 24h rally has already priced in strength
Michael Zheng bullish ↑ Edge +2% Confidence 58%

Price is 0.55-0.56; market appears efficient, but recent buy-side pressure and 1d/1w upward drift keep a small lean to Zheng.

8/3/2026, 12:00:41 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 55¢

Current price looks a bit rich on Zheng and recent flow has been weak; modest downside edge to the long side.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Zheng bid/ask depth is thinner than Kecmanovic · 1d price has drifted down from higher levels · Top-of-book imbalance favors Kecmanovic
Michael Zheng bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 58%

Zheng is slightly overpriced versus the current 0.55 mid; recent drift and orderbook imbalance favor Kecmanovic, while the spread is tight enough to trust the market more than a strong contrarian view.

8/3/2026, 06:00:46 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 60¢

No clear mispricing: market price is near a fair 60/40 split and recent upward momentum appears already reflected.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask only slightly above last trade · Orderbook imbalance favors Kecmanovic · 1d/1w move already priced in
Michael Zheng bearish ↓ Edge -1% Confidence 62%

Price 0.60 looks slightly rich versus the current orderbook and recent move has been up, but depth and spread are balanced enough that any edge is minimal.

8/3/2026, 00:00:54 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 59¢

Momentum favors Zheng, but the current price looks close to fair and the spread reduces conviction.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers 1d price up to 0.59 · 1h trend still positive · Orderbook support is modest
Michael Zheng bullish ↑ Edge +2% Confidence 56%

Price has rallied sharply from 0.47 to 0.59, but depth remains supportive and the latest move is still upward. Small positive edge only, as the market likely already reflects the main information.