Unified market view

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -6%

Confidence 77%

Price at model run 14.5¢ Model run: 8/19/2026, 18:01:08

Live best ask 13.8¢ Live update: 8/19/2026, 19:54:04

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus orderbook depth and recent drift toward No, with limited evidence of a near-term downside spike to the strike.

Watch triggers

Yes bid depth is strong but ask pressure still caps upside
No trades around 85.5% imply market leaning away from the dip
1h/1d trend on Yes remains flat-to-down

Why not now

Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus orderbook depth and recent drift toward No, with limited evidence of a near-term downside spike to the strike.

Revisit when

Yes bid depth is strong but ask pressure still caps upside · No trades around 85.5% imply market leaning away from the dip · 1h/1d trend on Yes remains flat-to-down

Execution guard

Price 13.8¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $72,415. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/19/2026, 19:54:04

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

13.8¢

Volume (24h) ?

$199,501

Liquidity ?

$72,415

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

80.7%

Momentum ?

-67.3%

Volatility ?

4.5%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

13.7¢ 125.92

13.3¢ 14.9

13¢ 12

12.5¢ 500

12.4¢ 16,687

Asks

13.8¢ 790

13.9¢ 550

14¢ 5

14.1¢ 17.38

14.3¢ 490

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/19/2026, 19:32:14 14.45¢

8/19/2026, 19:34:13 14.45¢

8/19/2026, 19:36:14 14.45¢

8/19/2026, 19:38:26 14.45¢

8/19/2026, 19:40:16 14.45¢

8/19/2026, 19:42:15 14.45¢

8/19/2026, 19:44:15 14.45¢

8/19/2026, 19:46:12 13.75¢

8/19/2026, 19:48:14 13.75¢

8/19/2026, 19:50:15 13.75¢

8/19/2026, 19:52:12 13.75¢

8/19/2026, 19:53:14 13.75¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -6% 8/19/2026, 18:01:08

Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus orderbook depth and recent drift toward No, with limited evidence of a near-term downside spike to the strike.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 8/19/2026, 15:22:18

$14,289 78.98¢

Buy · Yes 8/19/2026, 13:34:46

$7,593 42.24¢