Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
14.5¢
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus orderbook depth and recent drift toward No, with limited evidence of a near-term downside spike to the strike.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid depth is strong but ask pressure still caps upside · No trades around 85.5% imply market leaning away from the dip · 1h/1d trend on Yes remains flat-to-down
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
77%
Yes is priced near 14.5%, but recent book flow and price trend favor No; odds of a BTC wick to 62,500 look below market-implied probability.