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Prediction history

Market #3310013

8/9/2026, 12:02:34 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 45¢

Slight downside edge on Yes at current price; book and recent flow favor No more than the price implies.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers No bid depth far exceeds Yes · Yes ask side is much thicker · Short-term Yes trend softened
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 58%

Yes is trading near 0.45, but orderbook depth heavily favors No and the short-term history is flat to slightly down for Yes. The recent 24h move is up, yet the current price looks a bit rich versus the market-implied chance of reaching 85.