Unified market view

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 76%

Price at model run 12¢ Model run: 8/14/2026, 06:00:53

Live best ask 13¢ Live update: 8/14/2026, 07:07:28

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Yes is slightly overpriced relative to the chance of an official termination announcement, but the spread is tight and liquidity is adequate, so the edge is small rather than strong.

Watch triggers

Yes at 0.12 vs implied low event probability
Recent 24h price drop to 0.12
Orderbook favors No heavily

Why not now

Yes is slightly overpriced relative to the chance of an official termination announcement, but the spread is tight and liquidity is adequate, so the edge is small rather than strong.

Revisit when

Yes at 0.12 vs implied low event probability · Recent 24h price drop to 0.12 · Orderbook favors No heavily

Execution guard

Price 13¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $47,538. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/14/2026, 07:07:28

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

13¢

Volume (24h) ?

$115,565

Liquidity ?

$47,538

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

66.5%

Momentum ?

-10.7%

Volatility ?

1.3%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

12¢ 10,890.13

11¢ 20,342.48

10¢ 16,907.49

9¢ 20,650

8¢ 1,205

Asks

13¢ 5,682.93

14¢ 2,293.88

15¢ 1,252.38

16¢ 3,370

17¢ 1,476.47

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/14/2026, 06:43:09 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:45:09 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:47:29 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:49:14 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:51:09 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:53:25 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:55:12 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:57:09 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 06:59:12 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 07:01:12 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 07:03:09 12.5¢

8/14/2026, 07:04:12 12.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 8/14/2026, 06:00:53

Yes is slightly overpriced relative to the chance of an official termination announcement, but the spread is tight and liquidity is adequate, so the edge is small rather than strong.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 8/13/2026, 21:18:25

$6,720 84¢