Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
12¢
Yes is slightly overpriced relative to the chance of an official termination announcement, but the spread is tight and liquidity is adequate, so the edge is small rather than strong.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.12 vs implied low event probability · Recent 24h price drop to 0.12 · Orderbook favors No heavily
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
76%
Market prices imply a low chance; absent evidence of a near-term policy reversal, a formal US announcement ending the blockade seems unlikely by the deadline. Recent price weakness and heavy sell-side positioning also favor No.