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Prediction history

Market #3533571

8/14/2026, 00:03:23 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

No clear edge at current price; liquidity is high but the ask is effectively at par, so expected value is negligible.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask near 1.0 · Tiny spread · No detectable mispricing
Thiago Agustin Tirante neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 98%

Price is already at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread, leaving no meaningful upside versus implied probability; the market appears fully priced.