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US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

No directional position

Data gap
Execution state
Watch
Model edge Stefanos Tsitsipas ↑ 0%
Confidence 35%
Price at model run 89.6¢ Model run: 8/31/2026, 18:01:25
Live best ask 100¢ Live update: 8/31/2026, 18:35:09
Model OpenAI

The market implies an approximately 89.6% chance, while the sustained price surge and stronger bid depth support a slightly higher estimate near 90.0%. However, the extreme recent repricing and elevated short-term volatility make overreaction risk substantial.

Watch triggers
  • New injury or withdrawal information
  • Price moves materially below 0.88
  • Price sustains above 0.92
Why not now

The market implies an approximately 89.6% chance, while the sustained price surge and stronger bid depth support a slightly higher estimate near 90.0%. However, the extreme recent repricing and elevated short-term volatility make overreaction risk substantial.

Revisit when

New injury or withdrawal information · Price moves materially below 0.88 · Price sustains above 0.92

Execution guard

Price 100¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $242,465. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 8/31/2026, 18:35:09

Model stance

Watch

Best ask ?

100¢

Volume (24h) ?

$1,100,311

Liquidity ?

$242,465

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

—

Momentum ?

471.1%

Volatility ?

16.2%

Trend slope ?

0

Reasons

  • Volatility too high

Rule notes

  • High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Stefanos Tsitsipas

Bids

99.9¢ 177,328.84
99.4¢ 45
99.1¢ 377
99¢ 27,976.49
98.1¢ 87

Asks

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/31/2026, 18:11:12 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:13:08 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:15:13 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:17:12 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:19:12 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:21:13 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:23:27 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:25:14 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:27:26 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:29:12 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:31:11 99.95¢
8/31/2026, 18:32:28 99.95¢

Prediction history

Full history
Stefanos Tsitsipas ↑ 0% 8/31/2026, 18:01:25

The estimated probability is only marginally above the market price, so there is no clear divergence after accounting for volatility, spread, and repricing risk.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.